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  "body": "\n## Summary\n\nA credible interval is an interval of parameter values that has a given probability, such as $95\\%$, under the [[posterior distribution|0KJ7ZS8AJA]].\nIt is the Bayesian counterpart of a [[confidence interval|0S6T9KQNC0]].\nIts probability statement is about the parameter given the observed data, which is how confidence intervals are often, wrongly, read.\n\n## Explanations\n\n### L1 human\n\nAfter seeing the data, a Bayesian has a probability distribution for the unknown quantity.\nA $95\\%$ credible interval is a range that holds $95\\%$ of this probability.\nSo one may say \"given the data and the prior, the parameter lies in this range with probability $95\\%$\".\nFor example, if the posterior of a mean is normal with mean $10$ and standard deviation $1$, then $[8.04, 11.96]$ is a $95\\%$ credible interval.\n",
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