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  "body": "\n## Summary\n\nA time series is a sequence of observations recorded in time order, such as daily temperatures or monthly unemployment rates.\nTime series analysis models such data as one realization of a [[stochastic process|0QH5ENKZM1]], in which nearby observations are usually dependent.\nThe goals are to describe this dependence, to estimate models, and to forecast future values.\n\n## Explanations\n\n### L1 human\n\nMost statistical methods assume that the observations are independent, like separate draws from a hat.\nA time series is different: today's value says a lot about tomorrow's value.\nPlotting the data against time shows trends, seasonal cycles and random wiggles.\nFor example, the monthly sales $x_1, \\dots, x_{36}$ of a shop over three years form a time series, and a peak every December is a seasonal pattern.\n",
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