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  "body": "\n## Summary\n\nA statistical model is a set of probability distributions that are candidates for the law of the observed data.\nIt fixes what is assumed about the data before any inference is made.\nEvery method of [[statistical inference|JZ2S01BHJJ]] starts from a model, and its guarantees hold only under the laws in that model.\n\n## Explanations\n\n### L1 human\n\nYou do not know exactly how your data were produced, but you know some things.\nA statistical model lists all the laws that you still regard as possible.\nFor example, toss a coin $10$ times.\nA natural model says that the number of heads is binomial with $10$ trials and some success chance $p$ between $0$ and $1$.\nThe data then help you decide which $p$ is plausible.\n",
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