Math 2.0

Statistics Definition

Loss function

Builds on Parametric model

Definition

Let Θ\Theta be a set of states of nature, for example the parameter set of a parametric model. Let 𝒜\mathcal{A} be a set of actions. A loss function is a function L ⁣:Θ×𝒜→[0,∞)L \colon \Theta \times \mathcal{A} \to [0, \infty). The value L(θ,a)L(\theta, a) is the loss incurred by taking the action aa when the true state is θ\theta.

Remarks

For estimating a real quantity g(θ)g(\theta), the action set is 𝒜=ℝ\mathcal{A} = \R and standard choices are the following. The squared error loss is L(θ,a)=(a−g(θ))2L(\theta, a) = (a - g(\theta))^2. The absolute error loss is L(θ,a)=∣a−g(θ)∣L(\theta, a) = \abs{a - g(\theta)}. In a test of θ∈Θ0\theta \in \Theta_0 against θ∉Θ0\theta \notin \Theta_0, with 𝒜={0,1}\mathcal{A} = \set{0, 1}, the 00-11 loss is 11 for a wrong decision and 00 for a right one. Some authors allow real-valued losses that are only bounded below; this changes little in the theory.

Example: Θ=𝒜=ℝ\Theta = \mathcal{A} = \R and L(θ,a)=(a−θ)2L(\theta, a) = (a - \theta)^2. It is a function of the pair (θ,a)(\theta, a) with values in [0,∞)[0, \infty), and it is 00 exactly when a=θa = \theta.

Non-example: L(θ,a)=a−θL(\theta, a) = a - \theta on ℝ×ℝ\R \times \R. It takes negative values, so it is not a loss function in the sense above. It would also reward underestimating θ\theta without limit.

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Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_function
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