Math 2.0

Statistics Definition

Statistical decision theory

Builds on Statistical modelLoss functionRisk function

Definition

A statistical decision problem consists of the following data.

  1. A statistical model {Pθ:θ∈Θ}\set{P_\theta : \theta \in \Theta} on a sample space 𝒳\mathcal{X}, from which an observation XX is drawn.
  2. A measurable space 𝒜\mathcal{A} of actions.
  3. A loss function L ⁣:Θ×𝒜→[0,∞)L \colon \Theta \times \mathcal{A} \to [0, \infty).

A decision rule is a measurable map δ ⁣:𝒳→𝒜\delta \colon \mathcal{X} \to \mathcal{A}, and its performance is measured by its risk function R(θ,δ)=Eθ[L(θ,δ(X))]R(\theta, \delta) = E_\theta[L(\theta, \delta(X))]. Statistical decision theory is the study of decision problems through the comparison of the risk functions of decision rules.

Remarks

A rule δ1\delta_1 is at least as good as δ2\delta_2 if R(θ,δ1)≤R(θ,δ2)R(\theta, \delta_1) \le R(\theta, \delta_2) for all θ\theta. This is only a partial order, so the theory adds criteria: admissibility, the minimax principle and the Bayes principle. Randomized rules, which choose an action at random given the data, are often allowed; they make the set of risk functions convex.

Example: point estimation of a normal mean is the decision problem with PθP_\theta the law of nn independent normal variables with mean θ\theta and variance 11. Here Θ=𝒜=ℝ\Theta = \mathcal{A} = \R and L(θ,a)=(a−θ)2L(\theta, a) = (a - \theta)^2. The rule δ(X)=Xˉ\delta(X) = \bar X is a measurable map from ℝn\R^n to 𝒜\mathcal{A}, with risk 1/n1/n.

Non-example: a model and a set of estimators without a loss function do not form a decision problem. Clause 3 is missing, so risks are undefined and rules cannot be compared.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 4 pages in order. The foundations come first.

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  1. Loss function concept
  2. Risk function concept
  3. Statistical model concept
  4. Statistical decision theory definition

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_theory
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MSC62C05, 62A01
DefinesStatistical decision theory
UsesStatistical model, Loss function, Risk function

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