Statistics Sequential statistics Problem
Change detection
Problem
Let be observed one at a time. For an unknown change time , the variables are independent, has density for and density for , where . Find a stopping time of the observations that raises an alarm soon after the change and rarely before it.
Lorden's minimax form measures the delay by and the task is to minimize subject to for a given . Here is the expectation when the change occurs at time , and is the expectation when there is no change.
Remarks
The problem is a central problem of sequential analysis, with roots in industrial quality control. E. S. Page proposed the cumulative sum procedure, or CUSUM, for it in 1954. Gary Lorden introduced the criterion above in 1971 and showed that CUSUM is asymptotically optimal as . George Moustakides proved in 1986 that CUSUM is exactly optimal for this criterion. In the Bayesian form, studied by Albert Shiryaev, has a geometric prior and the expected delay is minimized subject to a bound on the probability of a false alarm. There is also an offline form, in which the whole sample is given and the change time is to be estimated.
Reading path
To understand this page from the ground up, read these 4 pages in order. The foundations come first.
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- no evidence level
- Expected value concept
- Sequential analysis concept
- Stopping time concept
- Change detection problem
Where this leads
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Further reading
About this page
| Tag | Z5H8ZZHVMC |
|---|---|
| URI | m2://Z5H8ZZHVMC |
| Kind | problem |
| Writing | W0 stub |
| MSC | 62L10, 62P30 |
| Status | This copy of the site has no build data. Run m2 status Z5H8ZZHVMC. |
| About | Sequential analysis |
| Uses | Sequential analysis, Stopping time, Expected value |
| Same as |
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