Math 2.0

Statistics Sequential statistics Problem

Change detection

Builds on Sequential analysisStopping timeExpected value

Problem

Let X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \dots be observed one at a time. For an unknown change time ν∈{1,2,… }∪{∞}\nu \in \set{1, 2, \dots} \cup \set{\infty}, the variables are independent, XnX_n has density f0f_0 for n<νn < \nu and density f1f_1 for n≥νn \ge \nu, where f0≠f1f_0 \ne f_1. Find a stopping time TT of the observations that raises an alarm soon after the change and rarely before it.

Lorden's minimax form measures the delay by Dˉ(T)=sup⁡ν≥1ess sup⁡Eν[(T−ν+1)+∣X1,…,Xν−1],\bar D(T) = \sup_{\nu \ge 1} \operatorname*{ess\,sup} E_\nu\left[ (T - \nu + 1)^+ \mid X_1, \dots, X_{\nu - 1} \right], and the task is to minimize Dˉ(T)\bar D(T) subject to E∞[T]≥γE_\infty[T] \ge \gamma for a given γ>1\gamma > 1. Here EνE_\nu is the expectation when the change occurs at time ν\nu, and E∞E_\infty is the expectation when there is no change.

Remarks

The problem is a central problem of sequential analysis, with roots in industrial quality control. E. S. Page proposed the cumulative sum procedure, or CUSUM, for it in 1954. Gary Lorden introduced the criterion above in 1971 and showed that CUSUM is asymptotically optimal as γ→∞\gamma \to \infty. George Moustakides proved in 1986 that CUSUM is exactly optimal for this criterion. In the Bayesian form, studied by Albert Shiryaev, ν\nu has a geometric prior and the expected delay is minimized subject to a bound on the probability of a false alarm. There is also an offline form, in which the whole sample is given and the change time is to be estimated.

Reading path

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  1. Expected value concept
  2. Sequential analysis concept
  3. Stopping time concept
  4. Change detection problem

Where this leads

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Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Change_detection
About this page
TagZ5H8ZZHVMC
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Kindproblem
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MSC62L10, 62P30
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AboutSequential analysis
UsesSequential analysis, Stopping time, Expected value
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