Math 2.0

Statistics Definition

CUSUM

Builds on Change detectionSequential analysisLikelihood functionStopping time

Definition

Let X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \dots be observed one at a time, in the setting of the change detection problem with pre-change density f0f_0 and post-change density f1f_1. Let ℓ(x)=log⁡(f1(x)/f0(x))\ell(x) = \log \big( f_1(x) / f_0(x) \big) be the log likelihood ratio of one observation. The CUSUM statistic is defined by W0=0,Wn=max⁡(0,  Wn−1+ℓ(Xn))(n≥1).W_0 = 0, \qquad W_n = \max\left(0, \; W_{n-1} + \ell(X_n)\right) \quad (n \ge 1). For a threshold h>0h > 0, the CUSUM procedure is the stopping time Th=min⁡{n≥1:Wn≥h},T_h = \min \set{n \ge 1 : W_n \ge h}, at which it raises an alarm.

Remarks

Equivalently, Wn=max⁡1≤k≤n+1∑i=knℓ(Xi)W_n = \max_{1 \le k \le n + 1} \sum_{i=k}^{n} \ell(X_i), with the empty sum for k=n+1k = n + 1 equal to 00. So WnW_n is the largest log-likelihood ratio of "a change happened at time kk" against "no change yet", over all candidate times kk.

Example: for a shift of a normal mean from μ0\mu_0 to μ1>μ0\mu_1 > \mu_0 with variance σ2\sigma^2, one finds ℓ(x)=μ1−μ0σ2(x−μ0+μ12)\ell(x) = \frac{\mu_1 - \mu_0}{\sigma^2} \left( x - \frac{\mu_0 + \mu_1}{2} \right). After rescaling, the statistic becomes Sn=max⁡(0,Sn−1+Xn−μ0−k)S_n = \max(0, S_{n-1} + X_n - \mu_0 - k) with the reference value k=(μ1−μ0)/2k = (\mu_1 - \mu_0)/2, the form used in quality control.

Non-example: the plain cumulative sum ∑i=1nℓ(Xi)\sum_{i=1}^n \ell(X_i) without the reset at 00 is not the CUSUM statistic. Before the change it drifts down to −∞-\infty, so after a late change it needs a long time to climb back to the threshold.

The mean time to a false alarm satisfies E∞[Th]≥ehE_\infty[T_h] \ge e^h, which guides the choice of hh.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 6 pages in order. The foundations come first.

Show the path as a graph
Each page uses the pages above it. The colour of the bar on a box shows how strong the evidence is, and the box also gives it as text. The list has the same pages.
  • no evidence level
  1. Expected value concept
  2. Likelihood function concept
  3. Sequential analysis concept
  4. Stopping time concept
  5. Change detection problem
  6. CUSUM definition

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CUSUM
About this page
TagVYM8AJ8111
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Kinddefinition
WritingW0 stub
MSC62L10, 62P30
DefinesCUSUM
UsesChange detection, Sequential analysis, Likelihood function, Stopping time

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