Math 2.0

Integral equations Volterra equations Example

Euler–Lotka equation

Builds on Laplace transform

Example

Consider an age-structured population, and let a≥0a \ge 0 denote age. Let l(a)l(a) be the probability of surviving to age aa, and m(a)m(a) the birth rate of individuals of age aa. Assume lml m is nonnegative, integrable on [0,∞)[0, \infty) and not almost everywhere zero. The birth rate B(t)B(t) at time t≥0t \ge 0 satisfies a renewal equation B(t)=G(t)+∫0tB(t−a) l(a) m(a) da,B(t) = G(t) + \int_0^t B(t - a) \, l(a) \, m(a) \, da, where G(t)G(t) collects the births from individuals already alive at time 00. This is a Volterra equation of convolution type with kernel k=lmk = l m.

Looking for exponential solutions B(t)=QertB(t) = Q e^{rt} of the equation without the term GG, with the integral taken over all ages a≥0a \ge 0, gives the Euler–Lotka equation ∫0∞e−ra l(a) m(a) da=1.\int_0^\infty e^{-r a} \, l(a) \, m(a) \, da = 1. Its left side is the Laplace transform k^(r)\hat k(r) of the kernel, so rr is a root of 1−k^(r)=01 - \hat k(r) = 0, the denominator of the Laplace transform method.

Check on an instance: let l(a)m(a)=b e−μal(a) m(a) = b \, e^{-\mu a} with constants b>0b > 0 and μ≥0\mu \ge 0. For r>−μr > -\mu the left side is ∫0∞b e−(r+μ)a da=br+μ\int_0^\infty b \, e^{-(r + \mu) a} \, da = \frac{b}{r + \mu}. It equals 11 exactly when r=b−μr = b - \mu, the birth rate minus the death rate.

Remarks

The left side is strictly decreasing in real rr, where it converges, so the Euler–Lotka equation has at most one real root. This real root is the intrinsic rate of increase of the population. The net reproduction number is R0=∫0∞l(a)m(a) daR_0 = \int_0^\infty l(a) m(a) \, da, the value of the left side at r=0r = 0. If R0>1R_0 > 1, the left side tends to 00 as r→∞r \to \infty, so there is a real root and it is positive. If R0≤1R_0 \le 1 and a real root exists, it is not positive.

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Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euler%E2%80%93Lotka_equation
About this page
TagE0YVMBPK7A
URIm2://E0YVMBPK7A
Kindexample
WritingW0 stub
MSC45D05, 92D25
IllustratesRenewal equation, Volterra equation of convolution type
UsesLaplace transform
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