Math 2.0

Statistics Statistical decision theory Theorem

Complete class theorem

Builds on Risk functionAdmissible decision ruleBayes estimatorBayes riskConvex set

Statement

Let {Pθ:θ∈Θ}\set{P_\theta : \theta \in \Theta} be a statistical model with a loss function, where Θ={θ1,…,θk}\Theta = \set{\theta_1, \dots, \theta_k} is finite. Allow randomized decision rules, and assume that every rule has finite risk at every θi\theta_i. Then every admissible rule δ\delta is a Bayes rule for some prior: there are weights π1,…,πk≥0\pi_1, \dots, \pi_k \ge 0 with ∑iπi=1\sum_i \pi_i = 1 such that ∑i=1kπiR(θi,δ)=inf⁡δ′∑i=1kπiR(θi,δ′).\sum_{i=1}^{k} \pi_i R(\theta_i, \delta) = \inf_{\delta'} \sum_{i=1}^{k} \pi_i R(\theta_i, \delta').

Remarks

Consider the risk set S={(R(θ1,δ),…,R(θk,δ))}S = \set{(R(\theta_1, \delta), \dots, R(\theta_k, \delta))} in ℝk\R^k, over all randomized rules δ\delta. Mixing two rules mixes their risk points, so SS is a convex set. If δ\delta is admissible, its risk point xx meets the convex set {y:yi≤xi for all i}\set{y : y_i \le x_i \text{ for all } i} in SS only at points equal to xx. A separating hyperplane through xx then has a normal vector with nonnegative entries, and normalizing it gives the prior π\pi. The minimized quantity is the Bayes risk of π\pi.

A class 𝒞\mathcal{C} of rules is called complete if every rule outside 𝒞\mathcal{C} is dominated by some rule in 𝒞\mathcal{C}. Complete class theorems are results of this kind, which show that the Bayes rules, or their limits, form a complete class. For infinite Θ\Theta, similar results hold under extra conditions, with limits of Bayes rules or generalized Bayes rules in place of Bayes rules.

Randomization matters in the proof: without it, the risk set need not be convex.

Going deeper

For a student

The theorem gives a frequentist reason to use Bayesian methods: admissibility, a purely frequentist property, forces a rule to be Bayes. It reduces the search for admissible rules to the study of Bayes rules for all priors. The proof is a direct application of the separating hyperplane theorem to the convex risk set. In infinite-dimensional problems the analogues are more delicate, and admissible rules are typically limits of Bayes rules.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 6 pages in order. The foundations come first.

Show the path as a graph
Each page uses the pages above it. The colour of the bar on a box shows how strong the evidence is, and the box also gives it as text. The list has the same pages.
  • no evidence level
  1. Admissible decision rule concept
  2. Bayes estimator concept
  3. Bayes risk concept
  4. Convex set concept
  5. Risk function concept
  6. Complete class theorem statement

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admissible_decision_rule
About this page
TagM3PFV1BX9V
URIm2://M3PFV1BX9V
Kindstatement, theorem
WritingW0 stub
MSC62C07, 62C10, 62C15
StatusThis copy of the site has no build data. Run m2 status M3PFV1BX9V.
AboutAdmissible decision rule, Bayes estimator
UsesRisk function, Admissible decision rule, Bayes estimator, Bayes risk, Convex set

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