Math 2.0

Statistics Definition

Sequential probability ratio test

Builds on Sequential analysisStatistical hypothesis testIndependent and identically distributed random variablesLikelihood functionStopping timeType I and type II errorsRandom walk

Definition

Let X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \dots be independent and identically distributed random variables with a density ff with respect to a σ\sigma-finite measure. Let f0≠f1f_0 \ne f_1 be two densities, and consider the hypotheses H0 ⁣:f=f0H_0 \colon f = f_0 and H1 ⁣:f=f1H_1 \colon f = f_1. The ratio of the likelihoods after nn observations is Λn=∏i=1nf1(Xi)f0(Xi),Λ0=1.\Lambda_n = \prod_{i=1}^{n} \frac{f_1(X_i)}{f_0(X_i)}, \qquad \Lambda_0 = 1. Let 0<A<1<B0 < A < 1 < B be constants. The sequential probability ratio test with boundaries AA and BB is the sequential procedure such that:

  1. It stops at the stopping time N=min⁡{n≥1:Λn≤A or Λn≥B}N = \min \set{n \ge 1 : \Lambda_n \le A \text{ or } \Lambda_n \ge B}.
  2. It rejects H0H_0 if ΛN≥B\Lambda_N \ge B and accepts H0H_0 if ΛN≤A\Lambda_N \le A.

Remarks

Example: for coin tosses Xi∈{0,1}X_i \in \set{0, 1}, let f0f_0 be the Bernoulli law with parameter 1/21/2 and f1f_1 the one with parameter 2/32/3. Then each head multiplies Λn\Lambda_n by 4/34/3 and each tail by 2/32/3. With A=1/4A = 1/4 and B=4B = 4, the test stops the first time the running product leaves the interval (1/4,4)(1/4, 4).

Non-example: comparing Λ100\Lambda_{100} with a single threshold after exactly 100100 tosses is a fixed-sample likelihood ratio test, not an SPRT, because the stopping rule of clause 1 is not used.

Since f0≠f1f_0 \ne f_1, the time NN is finite with probability one under both hypotheses and has finite expectation. In logarithms, log⁡Λn\log \Lambda_n is a random walk with the two absorbing barriers log⁡A<0<log⁡B\log A < 0 < \log B. Let α\alpha and β\beta be the error probabilities of type I and type II. Wald's inequalities are B≤(1−β)/αB \le (1 - \beta)/\alpha and A≥β/(1−α)A \ge \beta/(1 - \alpha), and in practice the boundaries B=(1−β)/αB = (1 - \beta)/\alpha and A=β/(1−α)A = \beta/(1 - \alpha) are used as approximations.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 56 pages in order. The foundations come first.

  1. Construction of the reals from Cauchy sequences concept
  2. Element definition
  3. Independent and identically distributed random variables concept
  4. Integers object
  5. Likelihood function concept
  6. Ordered field definition
  7. Proposition concept
  8. Random experiment concept
  9. Random walk concept
  10. Rational numbers object
  11. Real numbers object
  12. Sequential analysis concept
  13. Stopping time concept
  14. Type I and type II errors concept
  15. Set definition
  16. Ring of integers statement
  17. Disjunction definition
  18. Implication definition
  19. Predicate definition
  20. Ordered pair definition
  21. Union definition
  22. Sample space definition
  23. Existential quantifier definition
  24. Universal quantifier definition
  25. The rationals form a field statement
  26. Cartesian product definition
  27. Subset definition
  28. Uniqueness quantifier definition
  29. The rationals form an ordered field statement
  30. Binary relation definition
  31. Universal set definition
  32. Power set definition
  33. Order on the reals definition
  34. Complement definition
  35. Function definition
  36. Interval definition
  37. Sigma-algebra definition
  38. Preimage of a set definition
  39. Event definition
  40. Borel sigma-algebra definition
  41. Probability axioms concept
  42. Probability measure definition
  43. Probability distribution definition
  44. Probability space definition
  45. Conditional probability definition
  46. Random variable definition
  47. Independence of two events definition
  48. Law of a random variable definition
  49. Mutual independence of events definition
  50. Identically distributed random variables definition
  51. Independent sigma-algebras definition
  52. Independence of random variables definition
  53. Independent and identically distributed random variables definition
  54. Statistic definition
  55. Statistical hypothesis test concept
  56. Sequential probability ratio test definition

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sequential_probability_ratio_test
About this page
Tag4PBC71YCTK
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Kinddefinition
WritingW0 stub
MSC62L10, 62F03
DefinesSequential probability ratio test
UsesSequential analysis, Statistical hypothesis test, Independent and identically distributed random variables, Likelihood function, Stopping time, Type I and type II errors, Random walk

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