Probability theory and stochastic processes Foundations: probability spaces and events Example
Bertrand paradox
Builds on Classical definition of probability
Example
Take a circle and an equilateral triangle inscribed in it. Choose a chord of the circle "at random". What is the probability that the chord is longer than a side of the triangle? Three natural ways to choose the chord give three different answers. Choose two independent uniform points on the circle and join them. The probability is . Choose a uniform radius, then a uniform point on it, and take the chord perpendicular to the radius through that point. The probability is . Choose a uniform point in the disc and take the chord with that point as midpoint. The probability is .
Remarks
The paradox shows that "at random" has no meaning until one fixes a probability measure. The three methods give three different distributions on the set of chords. Joseph Bertrand gave the example in his book Calcul des probabilités of 1889, as a criticism of the principle of indifference.
Reading path
To understand this page from the ground up, read these 42 pages in order. The foundations come first.
- Construction of the reals from Cauchy sequences concept
- Element definition
- Integers object
- Ordered field definition
- Proposition concept
- Random experiment concept
- Rational numbers object
- Set definition
- Ring of integers statement
- Disjunction definition
- Implication definition
- Predicate definition
- Ordered pair definition
- Union definition
- Sample space definition
- The rationals form a field statement
- Existential quantifier definition
- Universal quantifier definition
- Cartesian product definition
- Subset definition
- The rationals form an ordered field statement
- Uniqueness quantifier definition
- Binary relation definition
- Universal set definition
- Order on the reals definition
- Power set definition
- Complement definition
- Function definition
- Interval definition
- Codomain definition
- Injective function definition
- Sigma-algebra definition
- Surjective function definition
- Event definition
- Bijective function definition
- Probability axioms concept
- Equinumerous sets definition
- Probability measure definition
- Finite set definition
- Probability space definition
- Classical definition of probability definition
- Bertrand paradox example
Further reading
- Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand_paradox_(probability), Bertrand's formulation of the problem
About this page
| Tag | 0T0JWJ3M47 |
|---|---|
| URI | m2://0T0JWJ3M47 |
| Aliases | bertrands-paradox |
| Kind | example |
| Writing | W2 usable |
| MSC | 60D05 |
| Instance of | Geometric probability |
| Uses | Classical definition of probability |
| Same as |
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