Math 2.0

Difference and functional equations Definition

Stochastic difference equation

Builds on Random variableStochastic processMeasurable function

Definition

Let (Ω,ℱ,P)(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, P) be a probability space, let k,l≥1k, l \ge 1, and let (ξn)n≥1(\xi_n)_{n \ge 1} be a sequence of random variables with values in ℝl\R^l. For each n≥0n \ge 0 let fn ⁣:ℝk×ℝl→ℝkf_n \colon \R^k \times \R^l \to \R^k be a Borel measurable function. A stochastic difference equation is a recursion Xn+1=fn(Xn,ξn+1),n≥0,X_{n+1} = f_n(X_n, \xi_{n+1}), \qquad n \ge 0, together with an initial random variable X0X_0 with values in ℝk\R^k. Its solution is the stochastic process (Xn)n≥0(X_n)_{n \ge 0} defined recursively by these equations.

Remarks

Example: the autoregressive equation of order 11, Xn+1=aXn+εn+1X_{n+1} = a X_n + \varepsilon_{n+1} with a∈ℝa \in \R and independent identically distributed εn\varepsilon_n, is a stochastic difference equation with fn(x,e)=ax+ef_n(x, e) = ax + e. Its solution is Xn=anX0+∑j=1nan−jεjX_n = a^n X_0 + \sum_{j=1}^{n} a^{n-j} \varepsilon_j.

Non-example: Xn+1=aXnX_{n+1} = a X_n with a constant X0X_0 involves no random input, so it is a deterministic difference equation whose solution is a single sequence.

Higher-order equations, such as the autoregressive model of order pp, Xn+1=∑i=1paiXn+1−i+εn+1X_{n+1} = \sum_{i=1}^{p} a_i X_{n+1-i} + \varepsilon_{n+1}, become first order on ℝp\R^p by stacking pp consecutive values. If X0,ξ1,ξ2,…X_0, \xi_1, \xi_2, \dots are independent, the solution is a Markov chain. It is time-homogeneous when fnf_n does not depend on nn and the ξn\xi_n are identically distributed.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 42 pages in order. The foundations come first.

  1. Construction of the reals from Cauchy sequences concept
  2. Element definition
  3. Integers object
  4. Measurable function concept
  5. Ordered field definition
  6. Proposition concept
  7. Random experiment concept
  8. Random variable concept
  9. Rational numbers object
  10. Real numbers object
  11. Set definition
  12. Ring of integers statement
  13. Disjunction definition
  14. Implication definition
  15. Predicate definition
  16. Ordered pair definition
  17. Union definition
  18. Sample space definition
  19. Existential quantifier definition
  20. Universal quantifier definition
  21. The rationals form a field statement
  22. Cartesian product definition
  23. Subset definition
  24. Uniqueness quantifier definition
  25. The rationals form an ordered field statement
  26. Binary relation definition
  27. Universal set definition
  28. Power set definition
  29. Order on the reals definition
  30. Complement definition
  31. Function definition
  32. Interval definition
  33. Sigma-algebra definition
  34. Preimage of a set definition
  35. Event definition
  36. Borel sigma-algebra definition
  37. Probability axioms concept
  38. Probability measure definition
  39. Probability space definition
  40. Random variable definition
  41. Stochastic process concept
  42. Stochastic difference equation definition

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_model
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MSC39A50, 62M10
DefinesStochastic difference equation
UsesRandom variable, Stochastic process, Measurable function

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