Math 2.0

Statistics Point estimation Theorem

Hájek–Le Cam convolution theorem

Builds on Local asymptotic normalityConvergence in distributionMultivariate normal distributionConvolution of probability distributionsEstimatorFisher information

Statement

Let Θ⊆ℝk\Theta \subseteq \R^k be open and let the models {Pn,θ:θ∈Θ}\set{P_{n,\theta} : \theta \in \Theta} be locally asymptotically normal at θ\theta, with nonsingular information matrix IθI_\theta. Let TnT_n be estimators of θ\theta that are regular at θ\theta. This means that there is a probability measure LθL_\theta on ℝk\R^k such that, for every h∈ℝkh \in \R^k, n (Tn−(θ+hn))→dLθunder Pn,θ+h/n,\sqrt{n}\,\Big(T_n - \big(\theta + \tfrac{h}{\sqrt{n}}\big)\Big) \xrightarrow{d} L_\theta \quad \text{under } P_{n, \theta + h/\sqrt{n}}, where →d\xrightarrow{d} is convergence in distribution. Then there is a probability measure MθM_\theta on ℝk\R^k such that Lθ=𝒩k(0,Iθ−1)∗Mθ,L_\theta = \mathcal{N}_k\big(0, I_\theta^{-1}\big) * M_\theta, the convolution of the multivariate normal distribution 𝒩k(0,Iθ−1)\mathcal{N}_k(0, I_\theta^{-1}) with MθM_\theta.

Remarks

Idea of proof: by LAN, the pair (n(Tn−θ),Δn,θ)\big(\sqrt{n}(T_n - \theta), \Delta_{n,\theta}\big) has a joint limit along subsequences, and Le Cam's third lemma gives its limit under the local alternatives. Regularity says that this limit does not change with hh; comparing characteristic functions then shows that the limit of n(Tn−θ)−Iθ−1Δn,θ\sqrt{n}(T_n - \theta) - I_\theta^{-1}\Delta_{n,\theta} is independent of the limit of Iθ−1Δn,θI_\theta^{-1}\Delta_{n,\theta}, which is 𝒩k(0,Iθ−1)\mathcal{N}_k(0, I_\theta^{-1}).

Consequence: if LθL_\theta has covariance Σ\Sigma, then Σ−Iθ−1\Sigma - I_\theta^{-1} is positive semidefinite, so Iθ−1I_\theta^{-1} is the best possible asymptotic covariance for regular estimators. An estimator with Lθ=𝒩k(0,Iθ−1)L_\theta = \mathcal{N}_k(0, I_\theta^{-1}), such as the maximum likelihood estimator in smooth models, is called asymptotically efficient.

The regularity hypothesis is necessary: there exist superefficient estimators that beat Iθ−1I_\theta^{-1} at single points, but they are not regular there.

Going deeper

For a student

The theorem is the asymptotic counterpart of the Cramér–Rao bound, but it needs no unbiasedness and it describes the whole limit law, not just its variance. "Regular" rules out estimators that are tuned to one parameter value, which could otherwise do better there. Together with the local asymptotic minimax theorem, it makes precise in what sense maximum likelihood estimators are asymptotically optimal in LAN models.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 67 pages in order. The foundations come first.

  1. Construction of the reals from Cauchy sequences concept
  2. Element definition
  3. Fisher information concept
  4. Integers object
  5. Local asymptotic normality concept
  6. Ordered field definition
  7. Proposition concept
  8. Random experiment concept
  9. Rational numbers object
  10. Real numbers object
  11. Set definition
  12. Ring of integers statement
  13. Disjunction definition
  14. Implication definition
  15. Predicate definition
  16. Ordered pair definition
  17. Union definition
  18. Sample space definition
  19. Existential quantifier definition
  20. Universal quantifier definition
  21. The rationals form a field statement
  22. Cartesian product definition
  23. Subset definition
  24. Uniqueness quantifier definition
  25. The rationals form an ordered field statement
  26. Binary relation definition
  27. Universal set definition
  28. Power set definition
  29. Order on the reals definition
  30. Complement definition
  31. Function definition
  32. Interval definition
  33. Sigma-algebra definition
  34. Indicator function definition
  35. Injective function definition
  36. Preimage of a set definition
  37. Event definition
  38. Countable set definition
  39. Borel sigma-algebra definition
  40. Probability axioms concept
  41. Probability measure definition
  42. Dirac measure definition
  43. Probability space definition
  44. Probability distribution definition
  45. Conditional probability definition
  46. Random variable definition
  47. Independence of two events definition
  48. Discrete random variable definition
  49. Cumulative distribution function definition
  50. Law of a random variable definition
  51. Random variable with a density definition
  52. Mutual independence of events definition
  53. Independence of two random variables definition
  54. Probability mass function definition
  55. Convergence in distribution definition
  56. Identically distributed random variables definition
  57. Probability density function definition
  58. Independent sigma-algebras definition
  59. Convolution of probability distributions definition
  60. Density of the normal distribution definition
  61. Independence of random variables definition
  62. Normal distribution definition
  63. Multivariate normal distribution definition
  64. Independent and identically distributed random variables definition
  65. Statistic definition
  66. Estimator definition
  67. Hájek–Le Cam convolution theorem statement

Where this leads

1 page builds on this one.

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_asymptotic_normality
About this page
TagE5H2GFPK42
URIm2://E5H2GFPK42
Kindstatement, theorem
WritingW0 stub
MSC62F12, 62E20
StatusThis copy of the site has no build data. Run m2 status E5H2GFPK42.
AboutLocal asymptotic normality
UsesLocal asymptotic normality, Convergence in distribution, Multivariate normal distribution, Convolution of probability distributions, Estimator, Fisher information

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