Math 2.0

Statistics Definition

Bayes estimator

Builds on Bayes riskRisk functionLoss functionPrior probabilityPosterior probabilityEstimatorBeta distributionBinomial distribution

Definition

Let {Pθ:θ∈Θ}\set{P_\theta : \theta \in \Theta} be a statistical model with a loss function LL, and let π\pi be a prior on Θ\Theta. For an estimator δ\delta, let r(π,δ)r(\pi, \delta) be its Bayes risk, the risk R(θ,δ)R(\theta, \delta) averaged over π\pi. An estimator δπ\delta_\pi is a Bayes estimator with respect to π\pi if r(π,δπ)<∞r(\pi, \delta_\pi) < \infty and r(π,δπ)=inf⁡δr(π,δ),r(\pi, \delta_\pi) = \inf_{\delta} r(\pi, \delta), where the infimum is over all estimators δ\delta.

Remarks

If r(π)<∞r(\pi) < \infty, an estimator that minimizes the posterior expected loss E[L(θ,δ(x))∣X=x]E[L(\theta, \delta(x)) \mid X = x] for almost every xx is a Bayes estimator. Under squared error loss L(θ,a)=(a−θ)2L(\theta, a) = (a - \theta)^2, the Bayes estimator is the posterior mean E[θ∣X]E[\theta \mid X]. Under absolute error loss, it is a posterior median.

Example: let XX be binomial with parameters nn and θ\theta, and let π\pi be the beta distribution with parameters a,b>0a, b > 0. The posterior is the beta distribution with parameters a+Xa + X and b+n−Xb + n - X. So under squared error loss the Bayes estimator is its mean (a+X)/(a+b+n)(a + X)/(a + b + n).

Non-example: for the uniform prior, a=b=1a = b = 1, the Bayes estimator is (X+1)/(n+2)(X + 1)/(n + 2). The proportion X/nX/n differs from it whenever X≠n/2X \ne n/2, and for n≥1n \ge 1 its Bayes risk 1/(6n)1/(6n) is larger, so X/nX/n is not the Bayes estimator for this prior.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 48 pages in order. The foundations come first.

  1. Bayes risk concept
  2. Beta distribution concept
  3. Binomial distribution concept
  4. Construction of the reals from Cauchy sequences concept
  5. Element definition
  6. Estimator concept
  7. Integers object
  8. Loss function concept
  9. Ordered field definition
  10. Proposition concept
  11. Random experiment concept
  12. Rational numbers object
  13. Risk function concept
  14. Set definition
  15. Ring of integers statement
  16. Conjunction definition
  17. Disjunction definition
  18. Implication definition
  19. Predicate definition
  20. Empty set object
  21. Family of sets definition
  22. Intersection definition
  23. Union definition
  24. Existential quantifier definition
  25. Sample space definition
  26. Universal quantifier definition
  27. The rationals form a field statement
  28. Disjoint sets definition
  29. Union of a family of sets definition
  30. Subset definition
  31. The rationals form an ordered field statement
  32. Partition of a set definition
  33. Universal set definition
  34. Power set definition
  35. Order on the reals definition
  36. Complement definition
  37. Interval definition
  38. Sigma-algebra definition
  39. Event definition
  40. Probability axioms concept
  41. Probability measure definition
  42. Probability space definition
  43. Conditional probability definition
  44. Law of total probability statement
  45. Bayes' theorem statement
  46. Prior probability concept
  47. Posterior probability concept
  48. Bayes estimator definition

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_estimator
About this page
Tag7T98FQFGYY
URIm2://7T98FQFGYY
Kinddefinition
WritingW0 stub
MSC62C10, 62F15
DefinesBayes estimator
UsesBayes risk, Risk function, Loss function, Prior probability, Posterior probability, Estimator, Beta distribution, Binomial distribution

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