Math 2.0

Statistics Definition

Bayes risk

Builds on Risk functionPrior probabilityLebesgue integralBinomial distribution

Definition

Let {Pθ:θ∈Θ}\set{P_\theta : \theta \in \Theta} be a statistical model with a loss function, and let R(θ,δ)R(\theta, \delta) be the risk function of a decision rule δ\delta. Let Θ\Theta carry a σ-algebra, and let π\pi be a probability measure on Θ\Theta, the prior, such that θ↦R(θ,δ)\theta \mapsto R(\theta, \delta) is measurable for the rules considered. The Bayes risk of δ\delta under π\pi is r(π,δ)=∫ΘR(θ,δ) π(dθ)∈[0,∞].r(\pi, \delta) = \int_\Theta R(\theta, \delta) \, \pi(d\theta) \in [0, \infty]. The Bayes risk of the prior π\pi is r(π)=inf⁡δr(π,δ)r(\pi) = \inf_\delta r(\pi, \delta), the infimum over all decision rules.

Remarks

The integral is a Lebesgue integral of a nonnegative function, so it always exists, possibly infinite. By Fubini's theorem, r(π,δ)r(\pi, \delta) is also the expected loss when θ\theta is drawn from π\pi and then XX from PθP_\theta.

Example: let XX be binomial with parameters nn and θ∈[0,1]\theta \in [0, 1], with squared error loss and δ(X)=X/n\delta(X) = X/n. Then R(θ,δ)=θ(1−θ)/nR(\theta, \delta) = \theta(1 - \theta)/n. For the uniform prior, r(π,δ)=1n∫01θ(1−θ) dθ=16nr(\pi, \delta) = \frac{1}{n} \int_0^1 \theta(1 - \theta) \, d\theta = \frac{1}{6n}.

Non-example: the maximum sup⁡θR(θ,δ)=14n\sup_\theta R(\theta, \delta) = \frac{1}{4n} is not a Bayes risk of δ\delta for the uniform prior. It is the worst-case risk used in the minimax principle; it equals r(π,δ)r(\pi, \delta) only for priors that put all their mass where the risk is maximal.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 44 pages in order. The foundations come first.

  1. Binomial distribution concept
  2. Construction of the reals from Cauchy sequences concept
  3. Element definition
  4. Integers object
  5. Lebesgue integral concept
  6. Ordered field definition
  7. Proposition concept
  8. Random experiment concept
  9. Rational numbers object
  10. Risk function concept
  11. Set definition
  12. Ring of integers statement
  13. Conjunction definition
  14. Disjunction definition
  15. Implication definition
  16. Predicate definition
  17. Empty set object
  18. Family of sets definition
  19. Intersection definition
  20. Union definition
  21. Sample space definition
  22. The rationals form a field statement
  23. Existential quantifier definition
  24. Universal quantifier definition
  25. Disjoint sets definition
  26. Subset definition
  27. Union of a family of sets definition
  28. The rationals form an ordered field statement
  29. Universal set definition
  30. Partition of a set definition
  31. Power set definition
  32. Order on the reals definition
  33. Complement definition
  34. Interval definition
  35. Sigma-algebra definition
  36. Event definition
  37. Probability axioms concept
  38. Probability measure definition
  39. Probability space definition
  40. Conditional probability definition
  41. Law of total probability statement
  42. Bayes' theorem statement
  43. Prior probability concept
  44. Bayes risk definition

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_estimator
About this page
TagFX1A4SN6CF
URIm2://FX1A4SN6CF
Kinddefinition
WritingW0 stub
MSC62C10
DefinesBayes risk
UsesRisk function, Prior probability, Lebesgue integral, Binomial distribution

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