Math 2.0

Statistics Distribution theory Theorem

Edgeworth expansion

Builds on Central limit theoremIndependent and identically distributed random variablesNormal distributionCentral momentConvergence in distribution

Statement

Let X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \dots be independent and identically distributed real random variables with mean μ\mu, variance σ2>0\sigma^2 > 0 and E∣X1∣3<∞E\abs{X_1}^3 < \infty. Let μ3=E((X1−μ)3)\mu_3 = E\big((X_1 - \mu)^3\big) be the third central moment. Assume that the distribution of X1X_1 is not a lattice distribution. That is, it is not concentrated on a set of the form {a+kh:k∈ℤ}\set{a + kh : k \in \Z} with h>0h > 0. Let FnF_n be the distribution function of Sn=(∑i=1nXi−nμ)/(σn)S_n = \big(\sum_{i=1}^n X_i - n\mu\big)/(\sigma\sqrt{n}), and let Φ\Phi and φ\varphi be the distribution function and the density of the standard normal distribution. Then Fn(x)=Φ(x)−μ36σ3n(x2−1) φ(x)+o ⁣(1n)F_n(x) = \Phi(x) - \frac{\mu_3}{6 \sigma^3 \sqrt{n}} (x^2 - 1)\, \varphi(x) + o\!\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt{n}}\right) uniformly in x∈ℝx \in \R.

Remarks

The proof compares characteristic functions. The characteristic function of SnS_n is e−t2/2(1+μ36σ3n(it)3)+o(n−1/2)e^{-t^2/2}\big(1 + \frac{\mu_3}{6\sigma^3\sqrt{n}}(it)^3\big) + o(n^{-1/2}) for tt in ranges of order n\sqrt{n}, and the correction term is the Fourier transform of the correction in the statement. A smoothing inequality turns closeness of characteristic functions into closeness of distribution functions; the non-lattice hypothesis controls the characteristic function away from 00.

The central limit theorem says Fn(x)→Φ(x)F_n(x) \to \Phi(x); the expansion gives the first correction, of order 1/n1/\sqrt{n}, which comes from skewness. For a symmetric distribution, μ3=0\mu_3 = 0 and the error of the normal approximation is o(1/n)o(1/\sqrt{n}). Under stronger moment conditions and Cramér's condition lim sup⁡∣t∣→∞∣EeitX1∣<1\limsup_{\abs{t} \to \infty} \abs{E e^{itX_1}} < 1, one gets further terms in powers of 1/n1/\sqrt{n} with Hermite polynomials and higher cumulants.

The non-lattice hypothesis cannot be dropped. For Bernoulli(1/21/2) variables, FnF_n has jumps of size of order 1/n1/\sqrt{n}, while the right side is continuous in xx, so the error cannot be o(1/n)o(1/\sqrt{n}) uniformly.

Going deeper

For a student

The Berry–Esseen theorem bounds the error of the normal approximation by C E∣X1−μ∣3/(σ3n)C\, E\abs{X_1 - \mu}^3/(\sigma^3\sqrt{n}); the Edgeworth expansion identifies the leading term of that error. Expansions of this kind explain why the bootstrap is often more accurate than the normal approximation for studentized statistics. They also give corrected quantiles, through the Cornish–Fisher expansion, and corrected confidence intervals.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 71 pages in order. The foundations come first.

  1. Complex numbers object
  2. Construction of the reals from Cauchy sequences concept
  3. Element definition
  4. Integers object
  5. Ordered field definition
  6. Proposition concept
  7. Random experiment concept
  8. Rational numbers object
  9. Real numbers object
  10. Euler's formula statement
  11. Set definition
  12. Ring of integers statement
  13. Disjunction definition
  14. Implication definition
  15. Predicate definition
  16. Ordered pair definition
  17. Union definition
  18. Sample space definition
  19. The rationals form a field statement
  20. Existential quantifier definition
  21. Universal quantifier definition
  22. Cartesian product definition
  23. Subset definition
  24. The rationals form an ordered field statement
  25. Uniqueness quantifier definition
  26. Binary relation definition
  27. Power set definition
  28. Universal set definition
  29. Order on the reals definition
  30. Function definition
  31. Complement definition
  32. Interval definition
  33. Injective function definition
  34. Indicator function definition
  35. Preimage of a set definition
  36. Sigma-algebra definition
  37. Countable set definition
  38. Event definition
  39. Borel sigma-algebra definition
  40. Probability axioms concept
  41. Probability measure definition
  42. Probability distribution definition
  43. Dirac measure definition
  44. Probability space definition
  45. Conditional probability definition
  46. Random variable definition
  47. Cumulative distribution function definition
  48. Discrete random variable definition
  49. Law of a random variable definition
  50. Independence of two events definition
  51. Random variable with a density definition
  52. Convergence in distribution definition
  53. Probability mass function definition
  54. Expected value definition
  55. Identically distributed random variables definition
  56. Mutual independence of events definition
  57. Probability density function definition
  58. Variance definition
  59. Law of the unconscious statistician statement
  60. Independent sigma-algebras definition
  61. Density of the normal distribution definition
  62. Characteristic function definition
  63. Moment definition
  64. Independence of random variables definition
  65. Normal distribution definition
  66. The characteristic function determines the distribution statement
  67. Central moment definition
  68. Independent and identically distributed random variables definition
  69. Lévy's continuity theorem statement
  70. Central limit theorem statement
  71. Edgeworth expansion statement

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edgeworth_series
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