Math 2.0

Statistics Definition

Empirical Bayes method

Builds on Prior probabilityPosterior probabilityMarginal distributionParametric model

Definition

Let θ1,…,θN\theta_1, \dots, \theta_N be i.i.d. with a prior distribution GG on a parameter space Θ\Theta, and given them let X1,…,XNX_1, \dots, X_N be independent with Xi∼f(⋅∣θi)X_i \sim f(\cdot \mid \theta_i), for a known parametric model ff. The prior GG is unknown, either fully or as G=GηG = G_\eta with an unknown hyperparameter η\eta. An empirical Bayes method proceeds in two steps.

  1. It estimates GG by some G^\hat{G} from X1,…,XNX_1, \dots, X_N, using that the XiX_i are i.i.d. with the marginal density mG(x)=∫Θf(x∣θ) G(dθ)m_G(x) = \int_\Theta f(x \mid \theta) \, G(d\theta).
  2. It makes inference on each θi\theta_i with the posterior of θi\theta_i given XiX_i computed under the prior G^\hat{G}.

Remarks

In the parametric case a common choice is to take η^\hat{\eta} maximising the marginal likelihood ∏imGη(Xi)\prod_{i} m_{G_\eta}(X_i). Example: let Xi∣θi∼𝒩(θi,1)X_i \mid \theta_i \sim \mathcal{N}(\theta_i, 1) and θi∼𝒩(0,τ2)\theta_i \sim \mathcal{N}(0, \tau^2) with τ\tau unknown. The posterior mean is (1−B)Xi(1 - B) X_i with B=1/(1+τ2)B = 1/(1 + \tau^2), and marginally Xi∼𝒩(0,1+τ2)X_i \sim \mathcal{N}(0, 1 + \tau^2). Since ∑iXi2/(1+τ2)\sum_i X_i^2 / (1 + \tau^2) has the chi-squared law with NN degrees of freedom, (N−2)/∑iXi2(N - 2)/\sum_i X_i^2 is an unbiased estimator of BB for N≥3N \ge 3; plugging it in gives the James–Stein estimator. Example: for Poisson data, f(x∣θ)=e−θθx/x!f(x \mid \theta) = e^{-\theta}\theta^x/x!, the posterior mean is E[θ∣X=x]=(x+1) mG(x+1)/mG(x)E[\theta \mid X = x] = (x + 1)\, m_G(x + 1)/m_G(x), and Robbins' method replaces mGm_G by the observed frequencies of the counts. Non-example: a full Bayesian analysis puts a fixed hyperprior on η\eta and integrates over it. This is a hierarchical Bayes method, not an empirical Bayes method, since step 1 does not estimate GG.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 57 pages in order. The foundations come first.

  1. Construction of the reals from Cauchy sequences concept
  2. Element definition
  3. Integers object
  4. Ordered field definition
  5. Proposition concept
  6. Random experiment concept
  7. Rational numbers object
  8. Real numbers object
  9. Set definition
  10. Ring of integers statement
  11. Conjunction definition
  12. Disjunction definition
  13. Implication definition
  14. Predicate definition
  15. Empty set object
  16. Family of sets definition
  17. Ordered pair definition
  18. Intersection definition
  19. Union definition
  20. Sample space definition
  21. The rationals form a field statement
  22. Existential quantifier definition
  23. Universal quantifier definition
  24. Disjoint sets definition
  25. Cartesian product definition
  26. Subset definition
  27. Union of a family of sets definition
  28. The rationals form an ordered field statement
  29. Uniqueness quantifier definition
  30. Universal set definition
  31. Binary relation definition
  32. Partition of a set definition
  33. Order on the reals definition
  34. Power set definition
  35. Complement definition
  36. Function definition
  37. Interval definition
  38. Preimage of a set definition
  39. Sigma-algebra definition
  40. Event definition
  41. Borel sigma-algebra definition
  42. Probability axioms concept
  43. Probability measure definition
  44. Probability distribution definition
  45. Statistical model definition
  46. Probability space definition
  47. Conditional probability definition
  48. Parametric model definition
  49. Random variable definition
  50. Law of a random variable definition
  51. Law of total probability statement
  52. Bayes' theorem statement
  53. Joint probability distribution definition
  54. Prior probability concept
  55. Marginal distribution definition
  56. Posterior probability concept
  57. Empirical Bayes method definition

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empirical_Bayes_method
About this page
Tag56QC25W5AT
URIm2://56QC25W5AT
Kinddefinition
WritingW0 stub
MSC62C12, 62F15
DefinesEmpirical Bayes method
UsesPrior probability, Posterior probability, Marginal distribution, Parametric model

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