Math 2.0

Statistics Statistical decision theory Counterexample

Stein's example

Builds on Multivariate normal distributionRisk functionAdmissible decision ruleJames–Stein estimatorStein's unbiased risk estimate

Counterexample

Let p≥3p \ge 3 and let XX have the multivariate normal distribution on ℝp\R^p with unknown mean θ∈ℝp\theta \in \R^p and covariance matrix the identity IpI_p. Estimate θ\theta under the loss L(θ,a)=∥a−θ∥2L(\theta, a) = \norm{a - \theta}^2, the squared Euclidean distance.

The estimator δ0(X)=X\delta_0(X) = X has risk R(θ,δ0)=Eθ∥X−θ∥2=pR(\theta, \delta_0) = E_\theta \norm{X - \theta}^2 = p for every θ\theta. It is not admissible. The James–Stein estimator δJS(X)=(1−p−2∥X∥2)X\delta_{JS}(X) = \Big( 1 - \frac{p - 2}{\norm{X}^2} \Big) X has risk R(θ,δJS)=p−(p−2)2 Eθ[1∥X∥2].R(\theta, \delta_{JS}) = p - (p - 2)^2 \, E_\theta\Big[ \frac{1}{\norm{X}^2} \Big]. For p≥3p \ge 3 the expectation is finite and positive, so R(θ,δJS)<pR(\theta, \delta_{JS}) < p for every θ\theta. Thus δJS\delta_{JS} dominates XX.

Check of the risk formula: write δJS(X)=X+g(X)\delta_{JS}(X) = X + g(X) with g(x)=−(p−2)x/∥x∥2g(x) = -(p - 2) x / \norm{x}^2. Then ∥g(x)∥2=(p−2)2/∥x∥2\norm{g(x)}^2 = (p - 2)^2 / \norm{x}^2 and ∑i∂igi(x)=−(p−2)2/∥x∥2\sum_i \partial_i g_i(x) = -(p - 2)^2 / \norm{x}^2. Stein's unbiased risk estimate gives R(θ,δJS)=Eθ[p+∥g(X)∥2+2∑i∂igi(X)]R(\theta, \delta_{JS}) = E_\theta\big[p + \norm{g(X)}^2 + 2 \sum_i \partial_i g_i(X)\big], which is the formula above.

Remarks

For p=1p = 1 and p=2p = 2, the estimator XX is admissible, so the dimension bound is sharp. The improvement is largest near θ=0\theta = 0, the point toward which δJS\delta_{JS} shrinks: there E0[1/∥X∥2]=1/(p−2)E_0[1/\norm{X}^2] = 1/(p - 2), so the risk is 22 instead of pp. Any fixed point can replace 00 as the target of the shrinkage.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 52 pages in order. The foundations come first.

  1. Absolute continuity concept
  2. Admissible decision rule concept
  3. Bias of an estimator concept
  4. Euclidean space object
  5. Expected value concept
  6. Function concept
  7. James–Stein estimator concept
  8. Lebesgue integral concept
  9. Limit point of a set definition
  10. Local maximum definition
  11. Mean squared error concept
  12. Multivariate normal distribution concept
  13. Normal distribution concept
  14. Partition of an interval definition
  15. Risk function concept
  16. Sequence definition
  17. Function of several variables concept
  18. Limit of a function definition
  19. Local minimum definition
  20. Mesh of a partition definition
  21. Riemann sum definition
  22. Real sequence definition
  23. Subsequence definition
  24. Partial derivative concept
  25. Continuity at a point definition
  26. Derivative definition
  27. Riemann integrable function definition
  28. Bounded sequence definition
  29. Limit of a sequence definition
  30. Monotone sequence definition
  31. Continuous function definition
  32. Differentiable function definition
  33. Weak derivative definition
  34. Fermat's theorem on stationary points statement
  35. Convergent sequence definition
  36. Monotone convergence theorem for sequences statement
  37. Every sequence has a monotone subsequence statement
  38. Differentiable functions are continuous statement
  39. Derivative function definition
  40. Bolzano–Weierstrass theorem statement
  41. Boundedness theorem statement
  42. Higher derivative definition
  43. Product rule statement
  44. Extreme value theorem statement
  45. Continuously differentiable function definition
  46. Rolle's theorem statement
  47. Mean value theorem statement
  48. Second fundamental theorem of calculus statement
  49. Integration by parts statement
  50. Stein's lemma statement
  51. Stein's unbiased risk estimate statement
  52. Stein's example counterexample

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stein's_example
About this page
Tag7SC9E65XDN
URIm2://7SC9E65XDN
Kindcounterexample
WritingW0 stub
MSC62C15, 62F10, 62J07
UsesMultivariate normal distribution, Risk function, Admissible decision rule, James–Stein estimator, Stein's unbiased risk estimate
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