Statistics Point estimation Theorem
Asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator
Builds on Maximum likelihood estimationConsistency of the maximum likelihood estimatorScoreFisher informationIndependent and identically distributed random variablesConvergence in distributionMultivariate normal distributionInteriorHessian matrixCentral limit theorem
Statement
Let be a family of probability densities with respect to a measure , with , and let be i.i.d. with density . Assume:
- lies in the interior of ;
- on a neighbourhood of , and is twice continuously differentiable, for every ;
- and ;
- the Fisher information exists and is nonsingular, where is the score;
- .
Let be a maximum likelihood estimator with in probability. Then where is convergence in distribution and is the multivariate normal distribution.
Remarks
Idea of proof: with probability tending to one, is an interior maximizer, so the score equation holds. A Taylor expansion around gives , where is the Hessian of the log-likelihood at intermediate points. Conditions 2 and 3 allow differentiation under the integral, so the score has mean and covariance , and the central limit theorem gives . Condition 5 and consistency give in probability, and solving for gives the result. Consistency itself is provided, for example, by the consistency theorem.
Example: for i.i.d. Exponential() data, and , so .
The interior condition is needed. For data with and , the MLE is . Then converges to the law of with standard normal, which is not normal. Smoothness in with a fixed support is also needed: for Uniform data the MLE is , and has an exponential limit.
Going deeper
For a student
The theorem justifies the usual Wald confidence intervals and the Wald test. Together with the delta method it gives limit laws for smooth functions of the MLE. The same expansion of the log-likelihood leads to Wilks' theorem for the likelihood-ratio statistic and to the score test. The modern view puts the result in the frame of local asymptotic normality, where the bound appears in the Hájek–Le Cam convolution theorem.
Reading path
To understand this page from the ground up, read these 125 pages in order. The foundations come first.
- Complex numbers object
- Construction of the reals from Cauchy sequences concept
- Convex function definition
- Element definition
- Euclidean space object
- Fisher information concept
- Function concept
- Identifiability concept
- Integers object
- Ordered field definition
- Proposition concept
- Random experiment concept
- Rational numbers object
- Real numbers object
- Score concept
- Set bounded above definition
- Euler's formula statement
- Jensen's inequality statement
- Set definition
- Function of several variables concept
- Ring of integers statement
- Conjunction definition
- Disjunction definition
- Implication definition
- Predicate definition
- Supremum definition
- Empty set object
- Family of sets definition
- Ordered pair definition
- Partial derivative concept
- Intersection definition
- Union definition
- Sample space definition
- Existential quantifier definition
- The rationals form a field statement
- Universal quantifier definition
- Completeness axiom statement
- Cartesian product definition
- Higher partial derivatives concept
- Union of a family of sets definition
- Subset definition
- Uniqueness quantifier definition
- The rationals form an ordered field statement
- Existence of square roots of nonnegative reals statement
- Hessian matrix concept
- Binary relation definition
- Topological space definition
- Universal set definition
- Order on the reals definition
- Power set definition
- Square root definition
- Function definition
- Complement definition
- Subspace topology definition
- Interval definition
- Injective function definition
- Indicator function definition
- Preimage of a set definition
- Sigma-algebra definition
- Metric space definition
- Countable set definition
- Event definition
- Open ball definition
- Borel sigma-algebra definition
- Metric topology definition
- Probability axioms concept
- Open set definition
- Probability measure definition
- Open cover definition
- Interior definition
- Dirac measure definition
- Probability distribution definition
- Probability space definition
- Compact space definition
- Random variable definition
- Conditional probability definition
- Monotonicity of probability statement
- Discrete random variable definition
- Compact set definition
- Convergence in probability definition
- Cumulative distribution function definition
- Law of a random variable definition
- Random variable with a density definition
- Independence of two events definition
- Probability mass function definition
- Joint probability distribution definition
- Convergence in distribution definition
- Expected value definition
- Independence of two random variables definition
- Mutual independence of events definition
- Identically distributed random variables definition
- Probability density function definition
- Variance definition
- Marginal distribution definition
- Linearity of expectation statement
- Markov's inequality statement
- Law of the unconscious statistician statement
- Independent sigma-algebras definition
- Density of the normal distribution definition
- Covariance definition
- Characteristic function definition
- Independence means the joint law is the product of the marginals statement
- Standard deviation definition
- Independence of random variables definition
- Normal distribution definition
- Variance of a sum statement
- Chebyshev's inequality statement
- The characteristic function determines the distribution statement
- Expectation of a product of independent random variables statement
- Multivariate normal distribution definition
- Independent and identically distributed random variables definition
- Lévy's continuity theorem statement
- Independent random variables are uncorrelated statement
- Statistic definition
- Likelihood function definition
- Law of large numbers concept
- Variance of a sum of independent random variables statement
- Central limit theorem statement
- Estimator definition
- Consistent estimator definition
- Sample mean definition
- Weak law of large numbers statement
- Maximum likelihood estimation concept
- Consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator statement
- Asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator statement
Further reading
About this page
| Tag | 8DWRYNAMFT |
|---|---|
| URI | m2://8DWRYNAMFT |
| Kind | statement, theorem |
| Writing | W0 stub |
| MSC | 62F12, 62F10 |
| Status | This copy of the site has no build data. Run m2 status 8DWRYNAMFT. |
| About | Maximum likelihood estimation |
| Uses | Maximum likelihood estimation, Consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator, Score, Fisher information, Independent and identically distributed random variables, Convergence in distribution, Multivariate normal distribution, Interior, Hessian matrix, Central limit theorem |
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