Math 2.0

Statistics Point estimation Theorem

Asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator

Builds on Maximum likelihood estimationConsistency of the maximum likelihood estimatorScoreFisher informationIndependent and identically distributed random variablesConvergence in distributionMultivariate normal distributionInteriorHessian matrixCentral limit theorem

Statement

Let {f(⋅;θ):θ∈Θ}\set{f(\cdot; \theta) : \theta \in \Theta} be a family of probability densities with respect to a measure ν\nu, with Θ⊆ℝk\Theta \subseteq \R^k, and let X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \dots be i.i.d. with density f(⋅;θ0)f(\cdot; \theta_0). Assume:

  1. θ0\theta_0 lies in the interior of Θ\Theta;
  2. on a neighbourhood NN of θ0\theta_0, f(x;θ)>0f(x; \theta) > 0 and θ↦f(x;θ)\theta \mapsto f(x; \theta) is twice continuously differentiable, for every xx;
  3. ∫sup⁡θ∈N∥∇θf(x;θ)∥ dν(x)<∞\int \sup_{\theta \in N} \norm{\nabla_\theta f(x; \theta)} \, d\nu(x) < \infty and ∫sup⁡θ∈N∥∇θ2f(x;θ)∥ dν(x)<∞\int \sup_{\theta \in N} \norm{\nabla^2_\theta f(x; \theta)} \, d\nu(x) < \infty;
  4. the Fisher information I(θ0)=Eθ0[s(θ0;X1) s(θ0;X1)T]I(\theta_0) = E_{\theta_0}\big[s(\theta_0; X_1)\, s(\theta_0; X_1)^T\big] exists and is nonsingular, where s(θ;x)=∇θlog⁡f(x;θ)s(\theta; x) = \nabla_\theta \log f(x; \theta) is the score;
  5. Eθ0[sup⁡θ∈N∥∇θ2log⁡f(X1;θ)∥]<∞E_{\theta_0}\big[\sup_{\theta \in N} \norm{\nabla^2_\theta \log f(X_1; \theta)}\big] < \infty.

Let θ^n\hat{\theta}_n be a maximum likelihood estimator with θ^n→θ0\hat{\theta}_n \to \theta_0 in probability. Then n (θ^n−θ0)→d𝒩k(0,I(θ0)−1),\sqrt{n}\,(\hat{\theta}_n - \theta_0) \xrightarrow{d} \mathcal{N}_k\big(0, I(\theta_0)^{-1}\big), where →d\xrightarrow{d} is convergence in distribution and 𝒩k\mathcal{N}_k is the multivariate normal distribution.

Remarks

Idea of proof: with probability tending to one, θ^n\hat{\theta}_n is an interior maximizer, so the score equation ∑is(θ^n;Xi)=0\sum_i s(\hat{\theta}_n; X_i) = 0 holds. A Taylor expansion around θ0\theta_0 gives 0=∑is(θ0;Xi)+Hn(θ^n−θ0)0 = \sum_i s(\theta_0; X_i) + H_n (\hat{\theta}_n - \theta_0), where HnH_n is the Hessian of the log-likelihood at intermediate points. Conditions 2 and 3 allow differentiation under the integral, so the score has mean 00 and covariance I(θ0)I(\theta_0), and the central limit theorem gives n−1/2∑is(θ0;Xi)→d𝒩k(0,I(θ0))n^{-1/2}\sum_i s(\theta_0; X_i) \xrightarrow{d} \mathcal{N}_k(0, I(\theta_0)). Condition 5 and consistency give Hn/n→−I(θ0)H_n/n \to -I(\theta_0) in probability, and solving for n(θ^n−θ0)\sqrt{n}(\hat{\theta}_n - \theta_0) gives the result. Consistency itself is provided, for example, by the consistency theorem.

Example: for i.i.d. Exponential(λ\lambda) data, λ^n=1/Xˉn\hat{\lambda}_n = 1/\bar{X}_n and I(λ)=1/λ2I(\lambda) = 1/\lambda^2, so n(λ^n−λ)→d𝒩(0,λ2)\sqrt{n}(\hat{\lambda}_n - \lambda) \xrightarrow{d} \mathcal{N}(0, \lambda^2).

The interior condition is needed. For 𝒩(μ,1)\mathcal{N}(\mu, 1) data with Θ=[0,∞)\Theta = [0, \infty) and μ0=0\mu_0 = 0, the MLE is max⁡(Xˉn,0)\max(\bar{X}_n, 0). Then n μ^n\sqrt{n}\,\hat{\mu}_n converges to the law of max⁡(Z,0)\max(Z, 0) with ZZ standard normal, which is not normal. Smoothness in θ\theta with a fixed support is also needed: for Uniform(0,θ)(0, \theta) data the MLE is max⁡iXi\max_i X_i, and n(θ0−θ^n)n(\theta_0 - \hat{\theta}_n) has an exponential limit.

Going deeper

For a student

The theorem justifies the usual Wald confidence intervals θ^n±1.96 (n I(θ^n))−1/2\hat{\theta}_n \pm 1.96\, (n\, I(\hat{\theta}_n))^{-1/2} and the Wald test. Together with the delta method it gives limit laws for smooth functions of the MLE. The same expansion of the log-likelihood leads to Wilks' theorem for the likelihood-ratio statistic and to the score test. The modern view puts the result in the frame of local asymptotic normality, where the bound I(θ0)−1I(\theta_0)^{-1} appears in the Hájek–Le Cam convolution theorem.

Reading path

To understand this page from the ground up, read these 125 pages in order. The foundations come first.

  1. Complex numbers object
  2. Construction of the reals from Cauchy sequences concept
  3. Convex function definition
  4. Element definition
  5. Euclidean space object
  6. Fisher information concept
  7. Function concept
  8. Identifiability concept
  9. Integers object
  10. Ordered field definition
  11. Proposition concept
  12. Random experiment concept
  13. Rational numbers object
  14. Real numbers object
  15. Score concept
  16. Set bounded above definition
  17. Euler's formula statement
  18. Jensen's inequality statement
  19. Set definition
  20. Function of several variables concept
  21. Ring of integers statement
  22. Conjunction definition
  23. Disjunction definition
  24. Implication definition
  25. Predicate definition
  26. Supremum definition
  27. Empty set object
  28. Family of sets definition
  29. Ordered pair definition
  30. Partial derivative concept
  31. Intersection definition
  32. Union definition
  33. Sample space definition
  34. Existential quantifier definition
  35. The rationals form a field statement
  36. Universal quantifier definition
  37. Completeness axiom statement
  38. Cartesian product definition
  39. Higher partial derivatives concept
  40. Union of a family of sets definition
  41. Subset definition
  42. Uniqueness quantifier definition
  43. The rationals form an ordered field statement
  44. Existence of square roots of nonnegative reals statement
  45. Hessian matrix concept
  46. Binary relation definition
  47. Topological space definition
  48. Universal set definition
  49. Order on the reals definition
  50. Power set definition
  51. Square root definition
  52. Function definition
  53. Complement definition
  54. Subspace topology definition
  55. Interval definition
  56. Injective function definition
  57. Indicator function definition
  58. Preimage of a set definition
  59. Sigma-algebra definition
  60. Metric space definition
  61. Countable set definition
  62. Event definition
  63. Open ball definition
  64. Borel sigma-algebra definition
  65. Metric topology definition
  66. Probability axioms concept
  67. Open set definition
  68. Probability measure definition
  69. Open cover definition
  70. Interior definition
  71. Dirac measure definition
  72. Probability distribution definition
  73. Probability space definition
  74. Compact space definition
  75. Random variable definition
  76. Conditional probability definition
  77. Monotonicity of probability statement
  78. Discrete random variable definition
  79. Compact set definition
  80. Convergence in probability definition
  81. Cumulative distribution function definition
  82. Law of a random variable definition
  83. Random variable with a density definition
  84. Independence of two events definition
  85. Probability mass function definition
  86. Joint probability distribution definition
  87. Convergence in distribution definition
  88. Expected value definition
  89. Independence of two random variables definition
  90. Mutual independence of events definition
  91. Identically distributed random variables definition
  92. Probability density function definition
  93. Variance definition
  94. Marginal distribution definition
  95. Linearity of expectation statement
  96. Markov's inequality statement
  97. Law of the unconscious statistician statement
  98. Independent sigma-algebras definition
  99. Density of the normal distribution definition
  100. Covariance definition
  101. Characteristic function definition
  102. Independence means the joint law is the product of the marginals statement
  103. Standard deviation definition
  104. Independence of random variables definition
  105. Normal distribution definition
  106. Variance of a sum statement
  107. Chebyshev's inequality statement
  108. The characteristic function determines the distribution statement
  109. Expectation of a product of independent random variables statement
  110. Multivariate normal distribution definition
  111. Independent and identically distributed random variables definition
  112. Lévy's continuity theorem statement
  113. Independent random variables are uncorrelated statement
  114. Statistic definition
  115. Likelihood function definition
  116. Law of large numbers concept
  117. Variance of a sum of independent random variables statement
  118. Central limit theorem statement
  119. Estimator definition
  120. Consistent estimator definition
  121. Sample mean definition
  122. Weak law of large numbers statement
  123. Maximum likelihood estimation concept
  124. Consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator statement
  125. Asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator statement

Further reading

  1. Web https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_likelihood_estimation
About this page
Tag8DWRYNAMFT
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Kindstatement, theorem
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AboutMaximum likelihood estimation
UsesMaximum likelihood estimation, Consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator, Score, Fisher information, Independent and identically distributed random variables, Convergence in distribution, Multivariate normal distribution, Interior, Hessian matrix, Central limit theorem

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